The victory of eccentric Muslim adversary Donald Trump in the American presidential race is considered one of the most significant risks that the world may face, according to the conclusions of the British Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). This research firm warns that Trump could undermine the global economy and weaken US national security and politics.
IN global risk rating 2016 The EIU uses a scale of one to 25, and Trump got a rating of 12, similar to the “growing threat of jihadist terrorist attacks."
World Threats Rating 2016
10. Oil price shock
4 points in the rating were assigned to a possible price shock in the black gold market due to a decrease in mining investments.
9. China's military operations in the South China Sea
This threat scored 8 points. As China builds up a military presence on disputed islands, whose shelf is rich in oil, the White House administration is trying to diplomatically and mobilize a military coalition with Japan to curb Beijing’s aspirations. But so far, the Chinese tiger only scared the American eagle.
8. UK exit from the EU
This event, according to EIU analysts, is unlikely and scored only 8 "threatening" points. A referendum on Britain’s presence in the European Union is scheduled for June 23 and if most Britons vote in favor, then this will be the greatest adventure of the century, according to David Cameron.
7. The destabilization of the world economy due to the actions of radical Islamists
This threat, which received 12 points, refers to medium-risk risks. However, Russia's successful actions in Syria, as well as the efforts of a coalition led by the United States, can transfer it to the category of “unlikely”.
6. Election of Donald Trump as US President
EIU does not expect US presidential candidate Trump to become the new head of the White House when he has an opponent like Hillary Clinton, but there is a risk of such an outcome (12 points). And Trump's chances will increase significantly in the event of a terrorist attack on US territory or a sudden economic downturn.
5. Greece's exit from the eurozone
This event, the probability of which is high (15 points), can lead to further collapse of the monetary union, and, as a result, adversely affect the global financial system.
4. Debt crisis in the euro area
The aggravation of the economic problems of the European Union due to the invasion of migrants, budget deficits of some EU member states and the crisis of confidence increase the chances of a prolonged recession and further split in the EU (15 points).
3. Corporate debt crisis in emerging markets
It is likely risk (16 points) due to the climax of the volatility of exchange rates. Volatility is a “litmus test” of the securities or currency market, it shows the level of its volatility in a certain period.
2. Russian intervention in Syria and Ukraine
Where in the first three global threats to security, and without Russians. In 2014, after Crimea joined Russia, the EU countries and the main stronghold of world democracy introduced sanctions against the Russian Federation. And the Russian military presence in Syria and participation in the conflict in Ukraine greatly complicates the relationship between the West and Moscow, as it was during the Cold War. EIU experts rate the likelihood of a new Cold War at 16 points.
1. Slowdown of the Chinese economy
The implementation of this economic threat, rated at 20 points, could entail a further decline in prices for raw materials, in particular metals and oil. And most of all, it can hit the countries of sub-Saharan Africa, the countries of Latin America and the Middle East. And since many Western retail chains and manufacturers depend on sales in China, stagnation in the economy of the Middle Kingdom can badly affect the economies of the United States and the European Union.
